A dizzying several days after President Donald Trump ordered controversial military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, the long-term political and other implications of arguably the biggest gamble yet of Trump’s second term remain unclear.
Addressing the nation late Saturday local time after the execution of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the codename for the strikes on Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, Trump claimed the enrichment facilities were “completely and totally obliterated.” But others have been more conservative in their assessment as officials here and elsewhere work to determine the extent of the damage to a nuclear program the Iranian regime insists was for peaceful purposes.
Against that backdrop and amid debate over how close the regime actually was to developing a nuclear weapon, and whether it was pursuing one, the Trump strikes also risk fracturing his domestic political coalition and creating a schism between his more-hawkish supporters and those wary of the prospect of another protracted military quagmire in the Middle East.
“It was a successful tactical strike, it appears that we hit the targets we intended to, but we don’t know yet whether they succeeded in setting back their nuclear program, and we won’t know that for a little bit,” said Michael Allison, Ph.D., a professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Scranton. “If we did and the Iranian response is what we’ve seen so far — pretty muted — it would be a victory in that sense for President Trump.”
President Donald Trump walks on the South Lawn upon arriving at the White House, Saturday, June 21, 2025, in Washington. (Jose Luis Magana/AP)
“Although some of the negatives are we launched a pretty significant attack against someone who we weren’t at war with, and it’s unclear what authority President Trump used to launch the attack,” he continued. “And even if we were successful in destroying or degrading some of the nuclear capabilities — nuclear energy, right? Nuclear capabilities is not weaponization yet — it’s unclear whether that will speed up their resolve. … We sort of had a sense that Iran was toeing the line, that they were putting themselves in a position that if they wanted to move towards weaponization they could. They just hadn’t, and now the question is whether or not their capabilities are reduced but their desire to get a nuclear weapon is increased.”
The U.S. strikes prompted an Iranian response Monday, when Iran launched missiles at a U.S. air base in Qatar. The Iranian retaliation resulted in no American casualties, with Trump thanking Iran on social media for notifying the U.S. in advance of its response.
Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles over Tel Aviv, Israel, Friday, June 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Tomer Neuberg)
He subsequently announced a tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel — whose war with Iran began earlier this month with attacks against Iranian nuclear and other targets — warning both sides Tuesday to avoid escalation.
Trump’s strikes in Iran have agitated some of his most stalwart allies and defenders, including Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. In a Monday post on X, formerly Twitter, the GOP firebrand suggested the military operation ran counter to key promises of Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda. Her post preceded Trump’s ceasefire announcement.
“Only 6 months in and we are back into foreign wars, regime change, and world war 3,” Greene wrote. “It feels like a complete bait and switch to please the neocons, warmongers, military industrial complex contracts, and neocon tv personalities that MAGA hates and who were NEVER TRUMPERS!”
Conversely, local Republican U.S Reps. Dan Meuser and Rob Bresnahan issued statements Tuesday backing Trump’s military action in Iran.
Congressman Rob Bresnahan (PA-08) answers questions from the media while at the Martin Family Dairy Farm in Lebanon County for an agricultural roundtable, Monday, April 14, 2025. (MATTHEW PERSCHALL/MULTIMEDIA EDITOR)
Congressman Dan Meuser, Pa.-9, answers questions from the media while at the Martin Family Dairy Farm in Lebanon County for an agricultural roundtable on April 14, 2025. He’s expressed an interest in running for governor in 2026 from a fairly safe seat that encompasses much of northeaster Pennsylvania and extends as far south as Berks County. (MATTHEW PERSCHALL – MEDIANEWS GROUP
“President Trump’s decisive leadership and commitment to Peace Through Strength are why this conflict is moving toward resolution — not escalation,” said Meuser, R-9, Jackson Twp. “His strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites sent a clear message: the U.S. will not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. … The world is safer today because we had a Commander-in-Chief who acted swiftly and with strength.”
Bresnahan, R-8, Dallas Twp., said the strikes were an important step toward eliminating the existential threat of a nuclear-equipped Iran.
“First and foremost, I am thankful our military pilots completed their mission and returned home safely and that no casualties were reported after the attack on the U.S. base in Qatar,” he said. “A nuclear-equipped Iran is an existential threat to our national security and global peace. The strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites by our military were an important step towards eliminating that threat and welcoming peace in the Middle East. I hope these nations can come to a ceasefire, and I appreciate President Trump’s desire to achieve that.”
Whether the ceasefire holds is uncertain, as are the ultimate impacts of the U.S. strikes on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, the stability of the region and Trump’s standing among the more-isolationist faction of the MAGA movement.
“After 72 hours or so I’m not ready to conclude that the operation is a success,” Allison said, noting the political implications remain to be seen. “I’m still worried about the process, right? They didn’t really make an argument … that there was going to be or was about to be an attack against the United States, that we preemptively attacked (Iran). There was no consulting to a significant degree with Congress. There was very little communication to the American public.”
Those are all “problems about process” that Allison said Americans should care about, too.
“It’s not all about the outcome,” he continued. “Sometimes you do things improperly but the outcome is OK, but that’s still a problem, and sometimes you follow the rules and things don’t turn out well.”
“Trump will take credit if things go well and he’ll blame others if it doesn’t go well, and that sort of gets amplified with the media,” Allison said later. “It’s unclear at what point people are going to turn against him because, again, if it works it’s because of him and if it doesn’t it was somebody else’s fault, and that gets amplified over and over again. That gives him much more of a get-out-of-jail-free card than previous presidents had in our country.”